Introduction: Novo’s Layoff as a Symbol of Industry Transition
In September 2025, Novo Nordisk announced a massive layoff of about 9,000 employees, roughly 12% of its global workforce. The decision comes amid intensified competition in the GLP-1 obesity drug market, particularly with Eli Lilly’s strong momentum. Novo’s strategy is to streamline operations and reallocate resources toward next-generation assets such as Amycretin and CagriSema. This move is not just a downsizing—it signals the beginning of a new round in the global obesity therapeutics race.
Current GLP-1 Leaders and Challenges
Today’s market is led by Novo’s semaglutide (Wegovy) and Lilly’s tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro), both achieving 10–15% or greater body weight reductions and being used across diabetes and obesity care. Yet challenges remain: high costs, the need for long-term administration, and supply chain strains. The FDA has begun to clamp down on compounded and unapproved versions, emphasizing stricter oversight of the supply chain.
Pipeline Highlights: Who Is Leading the Next Wave?
The focus now shifts to dual and triple agonists as well as oral formulations. Lilly’s oral GLP-1, orforglipron, succeeded in Phase 3 trials and is expected to be filed this year, potentially transforming adherence and expanding the patient base. Lilly’s retatrutide (triple agonist) published in NEJM showed unprecedented weight reduction results.
Novo is pursuing Amycretin (GLP-1 + amylin) and CagriSema (semaglutide + analogue), both aiming for over 20% weight reduction. Amgen’s MariTide (monthly injection), BI/Zealand’s survodutide (GLP-1 + glucagon), and Viking’s VK2735 (oral dual agonist) highlight the diversity of mechanisms. The key differentiators are broader efficacy beyond weight loss and improved convenience of administration.
Scientific Advances and Differentiation
- GLP-1 monotherapy (Semaglutide, Orforglipron) → oral route expands market access
- Dual agonists (GLP-1 + GIP or glucagon) → potential for MASH and metabolic disease expansion
- Triple agonists (Retatrutide) → largest weight reductions plus ongoing CV outcomes studies
- Amylin-based combos (Amycretin) → appetite suppression and gastric emptying synergy
- Monthly formulations (MariTide) → potential for stronger long-term adherence
Industry Trends and Strategic Implications
1. Short term: Oral GLP-1 launches could reshape the market. Wider use will heighten payer cost concerns.
2. Mid term: Dual and triple agonists will expand the therapeutic scope to obesity, MASH, and cardiorenal outcomes.
3. Long term: Outcomes-based pricing and real-world safety monitoring will define sustainability.
Part 1 Summary
Novo’s layoff is not simply about reducing staff—it represents a strategic reallocation toward next-generation therapies. The competitive landscape is shifting from single GLP-1 agonists to dual/triple mechanisms, oral pills, and long-acting monthly options. In Part 2, we will examine how pricing and reimbursement in Japan, the U.S., and Europe shape the real-world accessibility of these medicines.
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This article was edited by the Morningglorysciences team.
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