[August 2025 Update] The Frontline of the Obesity Drug Race: Lilly’s Setback, Emerging Biotechs, Big Pharma Strategies, and Chugai’s Moves

Introduction

As of August 2025, the obesity drug race is undergoing major shifts. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk remain dominant, but biotech challengers and Big Pharma entries are redrawing the competitive map. This article reviews the latest news, stock moves, pipelines, and Chugai Pharmaceutical’s strategic role.

Eli Lilly’s Current Status and Stock Performance

• Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) delivered 11–12.4% average weight loss in Phase III, trailing injectables (Zepbound: 21%, Wegovy: 15%). Shares fell ~14%; FDA filing by late 2025, launch expected ~2026.
• Q2 results were strong, with Zepbound and Mounjaro driving upgraded 2025 guidance.
• The global obesity drug market could reach ~$150B in 10 years.

Big Pharma Entries

• Amgen: MariTide, weekly GLP-1/GIP dual agonist injection in Phase II.
• Roche: Acquired Carmot Therapeutics for oral GLP-1 and triple agonist assets.
• Pfizer: Withdrew from oral GLP-1 development, exploring alternative modalities.
• AstraZeneca: Developing ECC5004 (oral GLP-1) via Eccogene partnership.
• Sanofi: Early-stage oral GLP-1 and amylin analog projects.

Emerging Biotech Players

• Metsera: MET-097i showed up to 20% weight loss in Phase IIa; IPO raised $275M.
• Zealand Pharma: Dapiglutide (GLP-1+GLP-2) in Phase Ib.
• Structure Therapeutics: Aleniglipron oral GLP-1, promising Phase II data.
• Altimmune: Pemvidutide (GLP-1+Glucagon) in Phase II.
• Viking Therapeutics: VK2735 (GLP-1+GIP) injectable and oral.
• Fractyl Health: Rejuva gene therapy, Revita device for maintenance.
• EktaH: Oral/spray fat taste receptor modulation.

Chugai Pharmaceutical’s Strategy

• Originator of Orforglipron, licensed to Lilly.
• Developing GYM329 to preserve muscle mass in obesity care.

Key Players & Pipelines (Launch Year & Market Size)

Market Environment & Competitive Landscape

• Anti-obesity drug market topped $30B in 2024; projected to $100B–$150B by 2030–2035.
• GLP-1 RA market forecast to grow from $28B (2025) to $63.5B (2032), CAGR 12.3%.
• Up to 16 new drugs by 2029; potential $200B obesity drug market by 2031.

Key Watch Points

1. Oral GLP-1 race: Orforglipron (2026), Aleniglipron, others.
2. Multi-target agents: Amycretin, Pemvidutide, Dapiglutide, MariTide.
3. Pricing & access: Insurance coverage, affordability.
4. Novel modalities: Gene therapy (Fractyl), muscle preservation (Chugai).

Conclusion

The obesity drug market is rapidly evolving beyond the Lilly–Novo duopoly, with Big Pharma entrants and biotech innovations intensifying competition. Oral GLP-1 approvals and differentiated strategies like Chugai’s could be game-changers. Core themes ahead: oral drugs, multi-agonists, pricing/access, innovation.

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This article was edited by the Morningglorysciences team.